报告题目：Assessing the efficiency of Wolbachia driven Aedes mosquito suppression by delay differential equations

报告人：  庾建设  教授   广州大学

报告摘要：To suppress wild population of Aedes mosquitoes, the primary transmission vectorof life-threatening diseases such as dengue, malaria, and Zika, an innovative strategy is to release male mosquitoes carrying the bacterium Wolbachia into natural areas to drive female sterility by cytoplasmic incompatibility. We develop a model of delay differential equations, incorporating the strong density restriction in the larval stage, to assess the delicate impact of life table parameters on suppression efficiency. Through mathematical analysis, we find the sufficient and necessary condition for global stability of the complete suppression state. This condition, combined with the experimental data for Aedes albopictus population in Guangzhou, helps us predict a large range of releasing intensities for suppression success. In particular, we find that if the number of released infected males is no less than four times the number of mosquitoes in wild areas, then the mosquito density in the peak season can be reduced by 95%. We introduce an index to quantify the dependance of suppression efficiency on parameters. The invariance of some quantitative properties of the index values under various perturbations of the same parameter justifies the applicability of this index, and the robustness of our modeling approach. The index yields a ranking of the sensitivity of all parameters, among which the adult mortality has the highest sensitivity and is considerably more sensitive than the natural larvae mortality.

报告时间：2018年4月7日(周六)下午2:50-3:40

报告地点：威廉希尔中文网站三楼专家接待室

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庾建设教授简介：教授，博士生导师，原广州大学董事长。主要从事微分方程动力系统、差分方程及生物数学模型的理论与应用研究，在《J. Differential Equations》、《SIAM Journal of Applied Mathematics》、《Journal of Mathematics Biology》、《中国科学》等国内外学术期刊发表论文100多篇，国家自然科学基金杰出青年基金获得者，先后主持国家自然科学基金重点项目3项、国家自然科学基金面上项目4项，主持教育部高校博士点基金和其他省部级基金10余项。入选国家“百千万人才工程”第一、二层次人选，被评为国家有突出贡献的中青年专家。